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Episode 1494: Listen to What the Bang Said
Date January 31, 2020 Summary Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley recap and consider the implications of the latest and greatest analyses of the Astros’ banging scheme, which appear to show that the team’s cheating didn’t increase its offensive production in the aggregate. Then (20:08) they talk to the man who made that research possible, longtime Astros fan Tony Adams, about his epic effort to document the extent of the Astros’ banging scheme, what motivated him to spend weeks watching and listening to pitches from 2017 Astros games, how he felt about the revelation that the Astros had illegally stolen signs, what the 2017 title meant to him at the time, what it means to him now, and the 2020 team. Lastly (53:56), they bring on Professor Woody Studenmund to celebrate the 60th anniversary of the pioneering North East League, the oldest APBA league in existence, and explain the appeal of baseball simulation games, the highlights of the league’s history, and the value of having a lifelong hobby. Topics * Tony Adams' data logs of the Astros' sign-stealing scandal * Evaluating the effectiveness of the Astros' banging scheme * Interview with Tony Adams * Tony's Astros fandom and feelings about the cheating scandal * Hurricane Harvey recovery and the 2017 World Series * Tony's creation of the sign stealing scandal data * Potential sign stealing in the postseason * Tony's reaction to the analysis of his data * Looking forward to 2020 * Reaction of other Astros fans to the scandal * Interview with Woody Studenmund * History of APBA and the North East League * Challenge of a continuous ownership league * How the North East League recruits new players * Reflecting on past seasons * League and player records * NEL conventions * Time commitment for managing a team * Woody's thoughts on the current state of MLB * Episode 1493 follow-up: Carlos Beltran's NLCS strikeout Intro Galactic (Feat. Mavis Staples), "Does it Really Make a Difference" Interstitials Johnny Flynn, "Been Listening" The Coasters, "Keep on Rolling" Outro Lee Graves, "Sixty Years and a Day" Notes * Rob Arthur and Bill Petti's analysis of the sign stealing data but together by Tony Adams showed that there was little, if any, net positive benefit of sign stealing. The penalty for incorrectly guessing the pitch was larger than the benefit for being correct. * Meg, referring to the banging scheme and related terms, says, "It'll never stop being funny." * Rob Arthur found that on average correctly knowing the pitch equated to an increase in .25 points of slugging percentage. * Tony describes the impact of the Astros' World Series win in 2017. In the aftermath of Hurricane Harvey he tells Ben and Meg how it helped bring the city together and continue the healing process from the storm. He lost most of his possessions, including his home, as a result of Hurricane Harvey. * Tony thinks that the Astros would have won the 2017 World Series without cheating, but acknowledges that there isn't any way to know for sure. He would have liked more clarity in the MLB report regarding the extent to which the Astros cheated in the postseason. * Ben and Meg jokingly ask Tony if he has a niece on Twitter or a burner account, a callback to the wild day in baseball Twitter described in Episode 1488. * Ben references a 40 year-old stratomatic league that was discussed in Episode 1292. This year is the 60th anniversary of the North East League. * In 1960 Woody began an APBA league by mail with friends (who were headed off to college). As Woody describes it, they had been a naval warfare group before switching to baseball games. * The North East League still plays with a 1986 version of the game (with updated player cards). Woody explains, "We don't claim to be the best. We claim to be the oldest." * Woody says that one player, Gary Robbins, who was ejected from the league for cheating (by colluding on bids with another owner) turned out to be a serial killer. The book about him is titled The Secret Life of a Bridge Player. Breathe a sigh of relief that bridge gets the rap in the book title. * Woody claims that cheating is quite rare in the league because everybody has known everybody else for a decade or more, and it's no fun beating your friend by cheating. * The time needed to play APBA games is limited, Woody estimates about 3 hours per month. But much more time is spent scouting players and developing their rosters. * There is currently an opening in the league, and applications are being accepted. They have an arduous application process to ensure high-quality applicants. Last time, 15 people applied. * Spouses are welcome at the league's annual convention, but Woody says that they rarely stick around for long. Go figure. Links * Effectively Wild Episode 1494: Listen to What the Bang Said * Sign Stealing Scandal database * The Banging Scheme Hurt the Astros As Much As It Helped Them by Rob Arthur * Bill Petti's analysis of the sign stealing data * There’s No Virtue in Signaling. But Is There Any Benefit? by Ben Lindbergh * How one angry Astros fan sought his own answers in the sign-stealing scandal by Marc Carig * About the ABPA * A Paean to APBA by Dave Studeman * The APBA Blog Category:Episodes Category:Guest Episodes